demise of the euro

Who knows this site also knows that we do not have a shimmer of trust when it comes to the Euro as a currency. When you listen closely to leading economists, including main stream German economists, there is a wide spread consensus the Euro’s only real backing is political drive. When the Euro fails, Europe fails is a dictum of Mrs. Merkel. Indeed the Euro was bullied upon the Euro zone populations as one of the tools to transform the EEC into the EU, to go from a cooperation between European states to a centralized European superstate.

The reasons why it does not work are too many to sum up here. What matters is that the UK never got in and that now Italy realizes that it will never get it’s economy back on track when it keeps the Euro. By now everybody that understands just a bit about macroeconomics and financials knows that at a certain point of time there is no fix left for the cripple currency and it has to be abandoned. It will not be split in a North- and South Euro as many proposed. Also it will not be in a system where it will disappear as a settlement currency between countries that all go back to their own currency system and central banking. It will disappear and loose any function.

Some people believe that if Macron can force the EU into being a transfer union all will be equaled out. This is not the case. By transferring wealth from Germany to France and Southern Europe these areas will not be able to repair their economies and become competitive with Germany. They need devaluations and setting their own interest rates. Anyway: the idea can not be sold in Germany long term. The Gutmensch stops being Gut at a certain point.

A good indicator that the Euro is about to go into the final years of its existence is George Soros seems to be betting against it (some say that is not true – but name me only one significant investor with notable Euro-reserves!). The time span the Euro remains depends on political force only.

Maybe that is a question Xi will ask Merkel, since she is on her tenth visit to China. EU media explain this visit as an approach from China and EU to counter the Trump administration. That is nice lie. Xi understands well he receives the most important European but not the ruler of Europe. He also knows BREXIT took place and Italy is at best a risk for EU and German ambitions. China is slowly decreasing it’s USD exposure, not to make the same mistake with accepting Euro as anything near to a reserve currency. Still it has some interest in Euro since the last 15 years Chinese investors massively bought ailing European companies.

Economists in fact are already very busy to develop scenario’ s about the demise of the Euro. Not since yesterday – already for a long time, since there actually never was a time the Euro made any real sense except as a political move.

A nice example is the study from Roger Bootle of 2012 (Click the picture to find it)

Many economists in Germany rightly believe the Euro was used to disown them, to take as much of their savings as it could possibly swallow. Some suspect that a next phase is considered: despite all propaganda of the Merkel administration to keep the Euro at any cost the top anonymous financial elites of Germany are busy with a plan how to dissolve the Euro. That makes sense: If this Merkel administration decides to get into the Macron proposed transfer Union it is writing of debt anyway. Not being able to force other Euro zone countries to repay debt in Euro makes the Euro obsolete for Germany.

The prospect of keeping the Euro is the continued deprivation of large parts of the European population and it is a verdict on any necessary economic reform in especially the South of Europe. It can work a decade or so: transfers will compensate until Germany decides that enough is enough. The prospect of dissolving the Euro is also a difficult scenario. It will happen overnight and the Eurozone population will be taken by surprise. It will not be a decision of the ECB or EUCO – they will be informed at best two weeks before it goes down. It will be decided by people in Frankfurt that nobody has ever seen but that hold all the strings. And it will be executed in a very well defined scenario.

The chance this will happen gets bigger all the time. The surprise will be to many that the Euro will not collapse because some Eurozone nations pull out, but because Germany will pull the plug when it sees the tool does not longer work…

Is crypto an answer to the war on cash?

The IMF (In German IWF) is studying hard on the workings of the cashless society. Governements and their banking lords are convinced: all transactions should go over bank accounts, all data must be visible. What is the implication? At the same times Banks can sell their data. When you are forced to pay with plastic, you are profiled. The theme does not get enough attention.

Another major implication: exclusion of a large part of the world population. Many people do simply not get bank accounts and live in a cash world. The shots are called by banks and governments. It is a major step to total (totalitarian) control. In fact it has a magnitute similar to that of the reintroduction of slavery.

The world indeed is in need of a decentralized, borderles payment system. (See our post on World Peace). Banks and governments not only control the value of money by manipulating it trough proprietary systems, but with cash abolished it will be able to allow or disallow any transaction and to know every transaction, what makes it of course easy to define very smart algorithms for price fixing.

Disowning people and incapacitate them to act – that is the war on cash. It is a war from banks, insurance companies, large pension  funds and governments against civil liberty. It is a criminal act.

Crypto at first seems an answer. No central authority that grants or not grants you an account. Peer to peer solutions. Where is the catch? We know that governments surveil close to 100% of all internet and telephone connections. We know that their capacity is limited and 90% of the traffic is just checked by algorithm. A 10% might go to a next level, still automated. We assume 2% is monitored by humans. The collected data however is stored and suppose you get famous or known – than you become part of that watch list. Is there a free space for a blockchain based crypto in this? We do not say yes. We say: possibly yes. It will prove hard to escape the predators than own everything…. When there is action, they will do everything in their power to get a part of that action. Legislation on blockchain now is still experimental and inconsistent. The same was the case in early internet. But when money is involved even bureaucrats learn fast. Taking money from productive people by force is the only way they can exist.

We recall the theory inspired by Dirk Mueller, who suspects the whole blockchain finance thing is just an experiment initiated by deep state and elites and the game plan to use and control it is already there. Being less than 2% of the market, experiments like this would be cheap for those who control the real money.

We hope but cannot believe there will be a crypto really mainstream that is independent from the powerhouses of today. We hoped once internet would give us some kind of freedom. In practice it rather destroyed more freedom than it gave in the end. And it obliterated any privacy. When main stream took over it did so very efficient. It became an extra control tool rather than anything even remotely resembling a free space…

the demise of the crowd (part 2)

We believe in robotics and the advance of IT. The Japanese attitude to this is rational and open. The EU attitude is negative and denying. Myths are spread:

  1. New workers will take care of the pension funds. That refers especially to refugees. The reality is that most refugees remain unemployed and that the ones working put pressure on the German minimum wage. People that work almost for free will contribute very little to the pension funds. The old saying Die Renten sind sicher does not apply anymore. The truth is that when you work a life time for a low to moderate salary in Germany you end up poor. But hey folks – pension fund managers and the political class protecting them and making laws for them have another interest than prevent pensioners be poor…. Pensions are schemes – that applies almost everywhere in the world.
  2. We need people to do the work. A persistent lie! Most work that these people are actually able to do will be automated away. The jobs that remain are sub standard. The result in the long run will be that wage taxes will decrease dramatically and after disowning the former middle class with EURO manipulations by the ECB, there will remain too little to grab. There is no vision about a model that is not centered on wage taxes. This will proof a fatal mistake. Like in the USA a GPU, Giant Permanent Underclass is created.
  3. IT will create a lot of new jobs. That sounds weird coming from the Merkel administration. It never had an adequate policy in place to deal with automation with as a result that Germany is lagging on this issue. And yes: “many” new jobs will be created – but for each new job created at least 50 to 100 jobs will be lost… In itself it is good that machines replace silly labor activities. The question is how to treat the people that loose these jobs. There is not a shimmer of an answer yet to that question in Germany.
  4. We have high employment levels! Also this is far from the truth. What Germany has are many so called minijobs that go in the statistic as employment – even 400 euro (per month that is!) jobs go into the statistic as employment. Next to that in Germany it is very lucrative to “employ” trainees. The fact is that Germany has a very high unemployment.

Putting all together (read part 1 also) the German economy is living on a time bomb. It has to be fed by it’s exports and maintain the power to have other EURO zone countries pay their debts. It is a situation that can explode easily. The EURO exists only because it is backed by massive political power. If the country stays fixing things an bullying other EURO group members in the end it will hit the wall. Most Germans are very much aware of this – but every rational action means taking pain and losses. They are not up to that and the real risk is that tensions will run that high that violence is the only answer.

Nothing new in EU… All the lies and repression (that is what the EU is all about) might work some more time. But that time is running out fast. EUCO is deperate to make a state out of the EU, even having a flag and anthem and pushing hard to have an army. It will not happen – and if it will happen despite all, a long period of rebellions will be the result.

Why follow these events at all? There is a good reason. The (financial) world has to consider a model in which EU countries will more or less drop out of the system and it is by now not a good place to invest. China reacted rational to this: they picked up a lot of companies in countries like Greece and Portugal – already fully aware of the strategy they have to use. Sell cheap in the markets where they buy (since these countries are on the road to mass poverty) and if any interesting technology is available, export it to China for a nice make over. UK can profit a lot from the decline of the EU if it decides for a hard BREXIT instead of paying massive tribute to EU, as Mrs. May seems inclined to do by lack of vision for the future.

Getting back to Japan: A modern economy sets on robotics and developing new technologies. It is not concerned about shrinking population. It will realize it is the mix of strength and quality that is decisive for success and prosperity. Even in the warfare as it develops in the 21st century having large numbers of people is becoming irrelevant. Also here tech decides. A lot of rethinking is needed and probably Japan is the most advanced country on earth when it comes to it.

A big threat for people in the Eurozone of EU countries is the war on cash. It means EU governments pin people to the digital EURO, enabling the verification and visibility of any transaction made in this EURO zone. The money is with banks that cannot be trusted – when the EURO goes down, they just come to a grinding halt. They try hard to prevent people leaving and converting. We do not believe yet crypto currency will be the answer to that, but when you are living in the Euro zone you will have a hard time hedging against the break down of the Euro. European elites are offshore for a long time already. They stash money and property outside of the EU, knowing what is coming. The property they hold in the EU are some companies and almost all the real estate they can lay their hands on. They are ready to leave for South America when the sh*t hits the roof. At present they think in bidonville scenario’s, accepting the poor hordes to live in unprotected no go areas as long as their own fences stand. South America is just in case – when things get out of control in Europe they must be prepared to run away.

the demise of the crowd (part 1)

We hardly follow politics, but keep aware of some things. We focus on Germany and the EU becoming a transfer Union and the spread of mass poverty and deprivation in that same EU. We worry about it, because it will lead to disastrous situations and probably war at the end of it. What happens in Germany, the continuation of the Merkel rule, is typical. Stuck in the crumbling middle, unable to innovate but very skilled in short term fixes. If you want to compare Germany with a car, it is an old car that still runs on fixes that by now have cost at least ten times the value of the car.

Germany’s biggest problem is an overwhelming export surplus. Already the US administration told Merkel the party can be over soon if Germany is not willing to be more moderate. That, and BREXIT, can put a dent into exports. However the biggest headache is that most exports went to other EU states within the EURO zone. That would be fine if the buying power in these other EU countries was bonafide. It is not and the only reason people could afford so many German products in countries like Italy, Greece, Portugal, Spain and some others is the banks offering credits they should not give but can give because when these credits default they get compensated – bailed out, refinanced etc. Banks in the EURO zone can conduct their business without any real risk of loss. The ECB is very willing to buy all worthless loans and the EU makes sure that if anything goes wrong they can just take it from the tax payer. The German tax payer is the first one to pay…

The Merkel administration made the existence of EURO the cornerstone of it’s policy. If the EURO fails, Europe fails Merkel said. What she means with Europe is in fact the EU and we cannot say enough times that Europe and EU are not the same thing. Germany needs an EU tied to EURO. The alternative is writing of debts and that will trigger a massive crisis in Germany. In practice this means that credit bubbles are inflated without limits. Of course nobody believes a country like Greece will ever be able to pay the debts it owes, but they are kept in the books and interest payments are received on it. The Greek economy is hardly a real economy anymore. When Tsipras cancelled all his promises to his people of repairing the economy of Greece, by staying in the EURO and just comply to the wishes from Frankfurt, he condemned Greece to permanent crisis. Varoufakis, the finance minister wanting to get out of EURO and reform the country, resigned. Why Tsipras made a 180 degree turn is probably because he was forced and blackmailed into it. Whatever the reason – for Greece it is disastrous. The main reason for this, is that Greece by staying in EURO can never be competitive and cannot build it’s own productive sector. It will keep buying from other countries. Even the tomatoes come from Dutch greenhouses…

Greece is a relatively small problem compared to France and Italy. The French made it clear to the Germans that if it wants to maintain stability, it must start transferring wealth trough the EU and the Italians in fact consider leaving the EURO zone if Germany insists too hard on it’s debts. Merkel has to sell this transfer system within her own population and that becomes ever harder since the population starts to understand that in fact they will pay themselves for the exports they done. They also start to understand well that the German state will save the exporting companies and just will take the money it involves from the German taxpayer.

This is not the only problem in Germany. Wages are dramatically low in Germany for the bulk of the population. The once well to do middle class is struggling. Pensions and savings more or less evaporated by a sustained policy of quantitative easing and zero to negative interest. People are disowned. The excuse is standard: ECB is independent and even though all decision are lobby decisions from Frankfurt, the Merkel administration claims it is not it’s wrongdoing… There is a thing called EU fatalism: when action or legislation is needed, it cannot be done because of some EU law or ruling. Perfect excuse.

True the German economy does well by some criteria, by other criteria however you see a rapid increase in poverty. The middle class sinks into the lower class. When you google the word Abstiegsangst you will be amazed how many bitter hits you will find. Germany votes itself in the middle. It is an almost religious attitude that drives people there. Fact is that this middle is weak and disappearing. Every change is painful. Sliding down as softly as possible seems to be the only way Germany can deal with itself.

How did Germany become a low wage paradise? It all started with opening the market first to Polish labor, than to Romanian and Bulgarian labor and nowadays also Ukrainians play their part. A race to the bottom. EU law works fine for those that do not want to pay taxes on wages. In a small country like Holland you can payroll a person for 1.42 Gross over Nett. But why should you when a Lithuanian already asks less Nett and the ratio is about 1.11 Gross over Nett. That is the basic flaw of the EU: you just shop for the best construction and the result is that salaries over all in Europe detoriate. Most so in Germany! Not only there the system makes no sense: VAT, tax-deductions, special taxes like on tobacco, alcohol and fuel, are all different within the EU and withing the EURO zone. Macron makes sense when he want to have equal conditions troughout the EURO zone – but that cannot be resolved without transferring wealth. The downside is that the people on the receiving end will have no real incentives to clean up their acts.

More to this: Prof. H.W. Sinn is a kind of watchdog for the nation. Other critics, right or wrong, are easy prey for German MSM, that strictly follows the Merkel narrative. Sinn however is considered an authority and cannot be defemated just like that. The vid is in German.

 

 

 

==== PART 2 will follow shortly ====

 

the wisdom of the crowd…

the crowd in the cloud shouting out loud

& being right!?

Seems to work. Many platforms are based on a thing called crowd intelligence. As opposed to specialist insight? There is no real intelligence in this, but it has a self fulfilling capacity. What is en vogue, what is trending, what is liked – that triggers people pulling wallets for it. It can pump the most useless and intrinsically worthless assets to dazzling heights. So real money to be made there.

Social trading – Carboneum.io is not the first to adopt that model. Can’t hurt to find out if it works. We are not enthusiast about social trading – but as explained above it has its rationale.

all about skills

We stumbled upon an ICO that meets a real life need: Skillchain. A way to store real information about peoples studies and achievements.

 


In previous contributions we have had our criticism on the LinkedIn site. We have been in recruitment for a notable time and one of the biggest headaches is to verify information. If at all possible, it takes time and effort to do so. When you browse trough linkedin profiles, you’ll notice:

  1. Many people are on there because they are supposed to be on it
  2. Many people use it as self glorification
  3. Many people just lie (or over polish, if you think that is more correct)

That makes it a drag to browse profiles. The bla bla bla bla factor. A project like Skillchain helps. If there is evidence of a finished education and/or achievement at the press of a button, that saves a lot of time. Providing that the suppliers of that information have credibility and are verified. This might just be a solution we have been waiting for a long time. The sad truth is that anybody can write anything in his/her CV and/or LinkedIn profile. We always hoped that the HR business would shrink and be a lot more no nonsense. This might be a milestone in achieving that.

Posted in ICO

world peace ?!

Not Batman, Superman or another hero available to save the world? Seems that investing in the World Peace Coin fixes that. So why not give it a shot?

The team is mainly from Japan. The purpose is noble: empowerment of people that currently have no bank accounts, but have smartphones. Reading the whitepaper it starts making sense. The distribution of tokens for lending for example are connected to an AI application rating the lender. It all starts in Myanmar and the intention is to roll it out to other countries in South East Asia, Laos and Cambodia first. Ambitious but if the WPC team is successful it will serve an extremely large market. With WPC the team commits to one of the original principles always mentioned by crypto enthusiasts: replace banking by crypto and reaching end empowering those people that have no chance to access the “normal” banking system. Serving small purses. Interesting to see the adoption level of this new coin in the markets it is designed for and if it will actually be used on a large scale. An incentive of course will be the lending, microfinance.

Still time to purchase some WPC. The project is for the long term and has a lot of developing stages ahead. Makes sense to follow it closely.

silver it is

We got a little sick about all the panic: BTC does not hold 8,200… So what? While writing it makes a slow recovery. We have it at 8,500 and are not far from the truth. We see BTC accepted by some very main stream power houses and keep believing it will go trough the roof still this year. Vroufakis calls it a bubble – and with him many other prominent people. Calling it a bubble does not make any sense.

Our first love was silver. AG – also XAG. There is a funny thing about silver. For years in a row people cry that it is bound to hit the sky. Never really happened & if it ever does: we simply do not know that. But we love it the same. The thing to collect, never use and pass on to your kids, hoping they will pass it on to their kids.

We are optimistic about the crypto market, despite the many negative things happening. Regulation things, excessive ICO launches, rumours, biased pseudo tech campaigns… It stays like boiling lava. A picture is drawn, but we do not know the artist and or what it will look like. We only decided already to pay for it…

We are getting close to the point we can invest for others without fear of losing. That we learned during Q2 of this year. The rules have changed, attitudes have changed, behavior has changed. Will we do it? Guess we will trough an ICO of our own to the end of the year. The Cryptosaur. We are still talking and puzzling a lot – but the idea is clear enough. The team is not there already. Whatever you do has to be done by a disciplined team that is fully committed and works efficient. The biggest objection for people we want to join us so far is: you are too conservative. Let’ s see if we are able to solve that. We are not from the valley. Also we are not from the Apple. We do not optimize on the sky that is the limit but some target we define…

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people from space, this is earth (a note on the cloud)

How to create peace and love and happiness?  – well folks, it is easy! It’ s in the youtube great recipe library. It is packed in a movie from 1957 that is indeed very entertaining to watch. It is called 27th day. Just find and watch it. I love old movies – I’ m tired of everything being effect… Makes me tired, not excited at all.

Anyway it is not a masterpiece, but contains a nice text line (quote):

People hate because they fear and they fear anything that they don’ t understand, which is almost everything…

Guess a lot of the hate of crypto that we encounter is part of that…

In the movie all bad people are wiped out and the people from space come to live on earth with the remaining people. Great, this blue eyed optimism of the late 50s.

Today, while following charts, I opened a tab of Kevin Shipp lectures (just find it on youtube). He describes today’s state of affairs as

the tyranny of secrecy

His story is too big to judge on, containing his theory of what is deep state and what is shadow government. The first is driven by money/power/greed, the second by secrecy/fear/intimidation.

True that big data is not limited by anything and privacy is a thing of the past. We are governed by a system that hides what it is doing. All is secret and or classified. The talking heads of this system make populations swallow this by spreading fear of terrorism. People are stupid enough to vote for laws that in the end makes them glass sitting ducks. What people use to miss: it is not about having all your data. It is about the capability to frame at any time they want. Works like this: all data is available. We changed some of it… But it is credible that the frame is true. No way (no means) to prove otherwise.

The 21st century is more belligerent than the 20th, despite two world wars. War has become an industry, a very professional one. Nobody in power wants peace. Peace is very costly. Permanent war (and so called peace missions) are a very strong business model…

Where does that put the blockchain? Here things become complicated. In theory you cannot change data once put on the chain. All proprietary software can change the past at will. In blockchain that option does not exist. In fact a lot of early developers were motivated by this concept of honesty.

But does it really work that way? We consequently warn against talking about the cloud as something that really exists. What exists is hardware ruled by communication protocols, needing companies and people that are sitting ducks when it comes down to it. Internet neutrality is already a casualty – much more is going on. As a consumer you are a sitting Duck. Even if it does not happen (what we doubt) every keystroke you make is registered somewhere. Most processes are ruled by proprietary databases, not thru blockchain. All technical requirements are generated by people owning hard- and software. Blockchain changes a lot, but not that reality.

Blockchain is not a freedom movement. That should be the lesson of 2018.

No such thing as people from cloud to earth…